This week's box
Edge of Eternities Play Booster Box · Edge of Eternities
Released 2025-08-01
As of 2026-07-12. Basis: trust-cleaned pricing (listings with no realized sales imputed down to their cohort median). "Expected" is a distribution, never guaranteed profit.
This week's box · Edge of Eternities
Know whether to crack the box or hold it.
Sealed expected value done as the sell-side math: net of the TCGplayer commission and the percentage payment fee, with the sub-$1 bulk that has no singles market dropped, not a naive sum of every single's price.
One box worked in full, free every week. The full catalog, ranked and updated daily, is the paid Expected Value board.
Step 1 · The box
Start with what's actually in the box
Expected Value begins with a real, sealed booster box and its current sealed price. That price is the number every other figure here has to beat: if a seller can't clear more than the box costs, holding it sealed wins.
- A real sealed product, priced at what it sells for today
- The sealed price is the bar the singles inside have to clear
- Everything below is measured against it
Step 2 · Net of fees
Worth is what a seller keeps, not the retail sum
Most EV pages publish a gross sum of every single's retail price. We start there, then net out the real TCGplayer commission and payment fee and drop the sub-$1 bulk that has no singles market, so the figure is what actually lands in a seller's account.
- TCGplayer commission and the percentage payment fee removed
- Sub-$1 cards with no real singles market dropped, not bulk-rated
- Gross stays visible; only the decision number is fee-and-bulk-adjusted
Step 3 · The distribution
One average hides the spread you actually open
A single mean pretends every box opens to the same pile. We show the typical opener (P50), the good-day outcome (P90), and the odds a crack clears the sealed price, so 'expected' means the distribution you are stepping into, never a promised payout.
- P50: what a typical opener walks away with
- P90: the good day, not the mean
- The odds a crack actually beats the box
Step 4 · The decision
The one number the decision turns on
Net realizable minus the sealed price is the crack edge: the fee-and-bulk-adjusted answer to crack or hold. Positive means the singles inside are worth more than the sealed box, after everything a seller actually loses converting them to cash.
- Net realizable, minus the sealed box price
- Positive means cracking beats holding, after fees
- The same number the ranked board sorts every product by
Step 5 · Honesty gate
When we can't be sure, we don't publish
When more than 5% of a box's value sits in cards we can't price, we withhold the figure instead of faking it. One unpriced chase card can prop a naive sum far above what a typical opener ever sees, and the model that catches that is the one you are reading.
- Withheld when more than 5% of the value can't be priced
- Weighted by value, so a few missing chase rares can't hide
- A caution when the figure rides cards near their recent highs
A decision number, not a gross mean
Built to answer one question: crack or hold?
A gross sum of card prices tells you what a box could theoretically contain. Expected Value tells you what a seller would actually clear, which is the number the decision turns on.
- 86.75%
- Kept after fees
- $1
- Bulk floor
- P50 · P90
- The distribution
- 5%
- Withhold line
What a Standard-marketplace seller nets per dollar of singles
Sub-$1 cards with no real singles market are dropped, not counted
The typical opener and the good day, beside the average
Over this much unpriced value, the figure is withheld
The difference
Most EV pages sum. We decide.
The gap is not more cards in the model. It is what the number is for.
See every sealed product ranked, not just this week's box
This week's box is worked in full, free. The full catalog, ranked by the decision number and honest about what it can't price, is the paid Expected Value board.