This week's box
Avatar The Last Airbender Play Booster Box
Avatar: The Last Airbender
Released 2025-11-21
Sign in free to see this week's numbers"Expected" is a distribution, never guaranteed profit.
This week's box · Avatar: The Last Airbender
Know whether to crack the box or hold it.
Sealed expected value done as the sell-side math: net of the TCGplayer commission and the percentage payment fee, with the sub-$1 bulk that has no singles market dropped.
One box worked in full, free every week. The full catalog, ranked and updated daily, is the paid Expected Value board.
Step 1 · The box
Start with what's actually in the box
Expected Value begins with a real, sealed booster box and its current sealed price. That price is the number every other figure here has to beat: if a seller can't clear more than the box costs, holding it sealed wins.
- A real sealed product, priced at what it sells for today
- The sealed price is the bar the singles inside have to clear
- Everything below is measured against it
Step 2 · Net of fees
What a seller keeps after every fee
Most EV pages publish a gross sum of every single's retail price. We start there, then net out the real TCGplayer commission and payment fee and drop the sub-$1 bulk that has no singles market, so the figure is what actually lands in a seller's account.
- TCGplayer commission and the percentage payment fee removed
- Sub-$1 cards with no real singles market drop out of the sum at zero
- Gross stays visible; only the decision number is fee-and-bulk-adjusted
Step 3 · The distribution
One average hides the spread you actually open
A single mean pretends every box opens to the same pile. We show the typical opener (P50), the good-day outcome (P90), and the odds a crack clears the sealed price, so 'expected' means the distribution you are stepping into.
- P50: what a typical opener walks away with
- P90: the good day, which one opening in ten reaches
- The odds a crack actually beats the box
Step 4 · The decision
The one number the decision turns on
Net realizable minus the sealed price is the crack edge: the fee-and-bulk-adjusted answer to crack or hold. Positive means the singles inside are worth more than the sealed box, after everything a seller actually loses converting them to cash.
- Net realizable, minus the sealed box price
- Positive means cracking beats holding, after fees
- The same number the ranked board sorts every product by
Step 5 · Honesty gate
When we can't be sure, we don't publish
When more than 5% of a box's value sits in cards we can't price, we withhold the figure instead of faking it. One unpriced chase card can prop a naive sum far above what a typical opener ever sees, and the model that catches that is the one you are reading.
- Withheld when more than 5% of the value can't be priced
- Weighted by value, so a few missing chase rares can't hide
- A caution when the figure rides cards near their recent highs
The decision number
Built to answer one question: crack or hold?
A gross sum of card prices tells you what a box could theoretically contain. Expected Value tells you what a seller would actually clear, which is the number the decision turns on.
- 86.75%
- Kept after fees
- $1
- Bulk floor
- P50 · P90
- The distribution
- 5%
- Withhold line
What a Standard-marketplace seller nets per dollar of singles
Sub-$1 cards with no real singles market count as zero
The typical opener and the good day, beside the average
Over this much unpriced value, the figure is withheld
Where the number comes from
We sell on TCGplayer, so the fees come out of our end
Commission and the percentage payment fee come off the seller's side of every sale we make, so the figure we needed was the one left after them. That is the number this page builds, and the one the ranked board sorts by.
After you decide
Crack it, log the pulls, score the call
Cracking the box is the last step of this page, so a break is where it lands. Open one, enter each card as you pull it, and every value resolves server side into a running total against what the sealed box itself sells for.
Wrappers still on the table.
Logging a break is free. Scoring it against expected value sits on the paid side: the EV the day you opened the box, and how much of the result was pull luck against how much was the baseline moving under you. That side is still being priced, and nothing charges until a price is published.
Break scorecard · against EV at open
Free · the break you log
Paid side · the call you made
What the scorecard answers
A schematic of the scored break. The free side is the running total against the box's own market price; the scored side separates how the cards fell from how the baseline moved, and it is still being priced.
Every sealed product in the catalog, ranked
This week's box is worked in full, free. The full catalog, ranked by the decision number and honest about what it can't price, is the paid Expected Value board.